Archive for March, 2010

postheadericon The Puzzle of Deltas

For years I have been telling traders to strive to purchase in-the-money options that have high Deltas, preferably 1. if possible.  Recently, Bev, a friend and fellow trader and I had a dicsussion about Deltas and she explained that she understood it to be advantageous to have a high Delta, but not necessarily as high as 1.  My goal has always been to achieve dollar option profit for every dollar stock profit.

Well, Bev gave me the particulars in a way that I could really understand and I stand corrected.

So here are the details. 

Let’s take two different strike prices for the same option.
Ford Underlying is $13.73 (at time of Buy)
1. The 1.0 Delta,  premium is $5.80
When the stock moves to $14.73 (1 dollar gain),
the premium moves to $6.80  (1 dollar gain.)
If you divide 5.80 by 6.80, you get a 17% gain.
———————————————————————–
2.  The .71 Delta premium is $1.16
When the stock moves to $14.73 (1 dollar gain)
the premium moves to $1.87  (1.16 plus .71 cents))
If you divide 1.16 by 1.87, you get a 62% gain.
——————————————————————————————-
The cheaper the premium, the lower the Delta, but out-of-the-money gets very risky (as far as winning), but the rewards get
higher as the delta gets lower.  You’d just have to luck out.
I still suggest buying at-the-money or in-the-money by a two levels with Delta between .55 and .80. these will have likelier wins.
Now admittedly, the difference in this shared example seems out of proportion. .71 Delta with premium of $ 1.16 and 1. Delta and premium for $5.80. Big span between $5.80 and $1.16 and little span between 1. and .71.  But they’ve been used to illustrate the math involved.  As you now look at the option chains, trying to determine which of the in-the-money options holds the best percentage, you now have the knowledge and skills to answer the question for yourself.
I thank Bev for bringing this advantage to my attentions and I am happy to share it with you.

postheadericon P3 Strategy: Putting Profit Probability Potential on Your Side

Announcing the coming release of a new option trading strategy book by Wendy Kirkland, author of Option Trading in Your Spare Time. P3 Strategy should be available to readers by April 15th. For those who have asked, “How can I win more traders than I lose? The P3 strategy is the key to putting that profit probability potential on your side of the trade. Most option trading is a zero-sum proposition, until now, this strategy give you the higher winning percentage.

postheadericon Some Sell Rules Don’t Require Charts

Here’s a key investing rule: Make buy decisions using sound fundamentals and technicals, such as IBD ratings and Chart patterns, and sell mainly on technicals.

But what exactly does it mean to sell on technicals?

Well, this rule is saying that ina few cases you can spot signals without checking out a stock’s chart.

Let’s examone of few of these signals:

Weakening Relative Strength. You probably bought your option on a stock when its IBD relative Strength Rating was 80 or higher. Consider selling when that rating slides. Think about exiting weh the rating falls below 70.

Standing alone within the Industry. Another sell signal is when your underlying asset is a “Lone Soldier” within its industry as the only one with a rising price. Cyclical changes are no doubt on the horizon.

Consider Selling when profit growth slows sharply. When the percentage increase in quarterly earnings slow sharply for two straight quarters, such as by 2/3 the previous quarter’s grwoth rate.

Contrarian Signal- Lots of publicity, excitement. Yes, this is a sell signal. When everyone thinks it is a wonderful stock, there comes a point where there is no one else to jump on the bandwagon. One downgrade can add a sour note that will spoil the trend.

A market correction. If the market enters a downtrend, don’t depend on your underlying asset to be able to swim against the tide. This is essential to protect your portfolio against severe losses.

If the stock rebounds, you get another chance to enter the trade. Better to be safe than sorry.